“There’s a map for that.”
Verizon is launching an anti-iPhone/AT&T ad campaign that hits hard on Apple’s only non-defensible drawback: its shoddy AT&T 3G service. I just saw the first ad on TV, but it’s going to take a while to determine whether Verizon’s got a winner here. From where I stand, there are a couple of reasons why this is going to be a difficult uphill battle:
1. Contracts & Cancellation Fees. Here’s an obvious reason. All AT&T users are locked into two-year contracts with exhorbitant cancellation fees. Further (and this is definitely speculation on my part), it seems like there’s a pretty significant number of iPhone users who recently renewed their contracts this summer to get the new iPhone 3GS. This segment of users will have to wait a full two years before they can leave AT&T, and many more will need to wait at least a year. Will Verizon’s argument last that long into the future? Perhaps. Is it enough to provoke customers to cough up $175 right now and abandon AT&T for the more reliable Verizon? That seems pretty unlikely.
2. iPhone Apps & Functionality. While I abandoned my iPhone for the Samsung Jack a little over a month ago, it’s still difficult to deny how feature-rich and engaging the iPhone is, especially when compared to every other mobile device on the market. All of my friends with iPhones use and love the its apps and features so much that I almost never hear complaints about dropped calls and service outages (however present they may be). I know this evidence is anecdotal at best, but it raises a question around whether AT&T’s crappy 3G service is that much of an issue at all. If it isn’t, Verizon needs to create this problem in the minds of iPhone users and propose a call to action that’s compelling and realistic enough to stimulate iPhone users to abandon their beloved mobile devices. IMHO, this current campaign just isn’t there yet.
3. The Carrier Who Cried Wolf. Both AT&T and Verizon have run ads for ages, each claiming they have the “most coverage” or the “fastest service.” It’s gotten to a point where I doubt whether consumers believe these ads anymore. Sure, Verizon’s new campaign is a clever and competitive, but all it really does is put a new spin on a tired argument that consumers are sick of hearing. Everyone has the best service — the question is, who has the best phones?
4. World Travelers. Probably not a huge issue for the vast majority of consumers, but one great thing about AT&T that kept me with them even after abandoning my iPhone is the fact that I can unlock the phone and swap out my SIM card to avoid international roaming charges. For people who travel outside the US frequently, this is functionality that Verizon just can’t reproduce at this stage in the game. Again, a small issue, but something many iPhone users are no doubt taking into account.
I’m definitely interested to see what happens here, and I’d love to see Verizon’s campaign stimulate more competitve behavior against the iPhone, a device which I still think is held up on a pedestal far higher than it deserves (due in large part to Apple’s masterful marketing execution). While I don’t see this campaign dethroning the king of mobile just yet, it’s certainly a step in the right direction. And with ever-more competitive devices on the way from Microsoft, Google, Palm, and RIM, it’s looking more and more as if the iPhone is standing alone as a perfect storm of competition gradually builds around it.